2013/2014 win probabilities - Central Division

Check out this post on the new version of Rink Stats.

Below are the videos which show the win probability graphs for all 2013/2014 games for the teams in the Central Division. To learn more about the win probability metric, check out my post here. The folder with the individual game graphs for every team is available here.

2013/2014 win probabilities - Pacific Division

Check out this post on the new version of Rink Stats.

Below are the videos which show the win probability graphs for all 2013/2014 games for the teams in the Pacific Division. To learn more about the win probability metric, check out my post here. The folder with the individual game graphs for every team is available here.

2013/2014 win probabilities - Metropolitan Division

Check out this post on the new version of Rink Stats.

Below are the videos which show the win probability graphs for all 2013/2014 games for the teams in the Metropolitan Division. To learn more about the win probability metric, check out my post here. The folder with the individual game graphs for every team is available here.

2013/2014 win probabilities - Atlantic Division

Check out this post on the new version of Rink Stats.

Below are the videos which show the win probability graphs for all 2013/2014 games for the teams in the Atlantic Division. To learn more about the win probability metric, check out my post here. The folder with the individual game graphs for every team is available here.

How much smarter are college basketball experts than the rest of us?

Check out this post on the new version of Rink Stats. I wrote an article this week for Deadspin looking at how much better college basketball "experts" did at predicting the NCAA tournament this year than non-experts. I used the same 11 million brackets from ESPN.com's Tournament Challenge as I used for the earlier article in the Wall Street Journal. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the experts didn't do all that much better than the non-experts.

"Generally the experts' brackets were slightly better than the non-expert ones, although the evidence isn't especially overwhelming. The analysis suggests that next year you'll have just as good a chance of winning your office pool if you make your own picks as if you follow the experts."

I've also made the data available here.

Odds of a perfect NCAA bracket this year

Check out this post on the new version of Rink Stats. Check out my new, non-hockey, article in Monday's Wall Street Journal. I find that, this year, there was a 1 in 1.47 quadrillion chance of picking a perfect NCAA March Madness bracket.