I've always been interested in the strategy that goes into
shootouts in the NHL. Each coach must first choose three players to take the
shootout attempts for their team, and then they have to decide the ordering of
those players. In addition, the home team gets to decide whether to shoot first
or second.
80% of the time, the home team chooses to shoot first in the
shootout. In terms of strategy, this seems like the proper course of action. Somebody
better versed in economic game theory could probably prove this better than me,
but the basic intuition is based on the fact that the probability of scoring on
any shootout shot is less than 50%. If the team that shoots first scores, then the
other team's shooter probably feels more pressure to score. Likewise, if the
first team fails to score, the odds are still in that team's favor that the
shootout score will remain tied (since there's still less than 50% chance of
the second team to score).
In this post, I want to see whether the team that shoots
first actually wins more shootouts. By looking at the 900+ shootouts that have
happened in the NHL since 2007-2008, I
find that there appears to be some evidence that shooting first gives you a
slightly better probability of winning. Somewhat surprisingly though, I also
find that teams tend to do worse in shootouts at home than on the road.
